The often dusty counties of Machakos, Kitui, and Makuenicollectively known as Ukambanihave emerged as a hot political battleground in Kenyas pre-mature 2027 campaigns.
With approximately 2 million votes at stake, this region is witnessing a multi-front war that pits ageing kingpins against emerging rebels, opposition alliances against state machinery, and ethnic solidarity against empty politics with nothing to show.
The electoral stakes
- Voter Strength: Ukambanis 2 million votes (2022 figures) remain pivotal despite former Deputy President Rigathi Gachaguas dismissive 2022 assertion that the regions votes were insufficient alone to win power. His blunt assessment”1.5 million votes wont take you anywhere alone”now haunts his own courtship of the region.
- 2022 Loyalties: In the last election, Raila Odinga dominated Ukambani, trouncing William Ruto by 151,940 votes across six sampled constituencies. Raila secured 219,009 votes to Rutos 67,069, a victory largely credited to Kalonzo Musyokas influence.
Kalonzos reign
Once the undisputed “King of Ukambani,” Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka faces an unprecedented erosion of authority:
- 1. Rebels: The then Machakos Governor Alfred Mutuas 2022 defiancedelivering 19,677 votes to Ruto in his backyardsignaled cracks in Kalonzos command. Mutuas pivot to Kenya Kwanza exposed Kalonzos vulnerability to local challengers.
- 2. Generational Shift: Young politicians like Governor Mutula Kilonzo Jr. (Makueni) publicly demand Kalonzos presidential bid but increasingly assert autonomy. Mutulas declaration”Everybody is courting us”hints at a post-Kalonzo era.
- 3. New Inroads: Figures like MP Vincent Kawaya exemplify the rise of leaders leveraging grassroots networks over Kalonzos patronage. Their alignment with Rutos empowerment programs threatens Wipers hegemony.
Gachagua-Kalonzo: The Unlikely Axis
In a stunning twist, Kalonzo has allied with his erstwhile critic Gachagua, forming the oppositions core. Their strategy:
“Take the Money, Keep the Faith”: At joint rallies, Gachagua urges crowds: “Collect UDAs money but dont be swayed… Use it to buy alcohol or pay shylocks.”
Ethnic Mobilisation: Gachagua praises Kalonzos “solid political base,” urging Ukambani to elect only Wiper MPs to strengthen Kalonzos hand. “Give him Wiper MPs only,” he insists, framing tribal unity as key to defeating Ruto.
Moral Framing:The duo weaponises state violence, dismissing empowerment funds as misuse of state finances.
Rutos Counter-Offensive
The state has responded with a full-court press:
Financial Firepower: Deputy President Kindiki has led Kenya Kwanzas “empowerment blitz,” flooding the region with millions in grants for women and youth groups to turn around their economic power through small businesses..
Elite Defections: Speakers Moses Wetangula and National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichungwah are rallying Kamba elites to defect, framing Kalonzo as a “perennial loser”.
Infrastructure Promises: Rutos allies attack Kalonzo for “failing Ukambani” while pledging road expansions and water projectssome of which are already in progress “.
Endgame
Ukambanis political trajectory is no longer Kalonzos to dictate. His alliance with Gachaguaa pragmatic but risky marriageadmits his need for Mt. Kenyas votes even as he fights Rutos financial colonisation of his homeland. Yet both camps face an electorate more sceptical of old loyalties.
The ultimate irony? Gachagua who once dismissed Ukambanis votes as inconsequentialnow stakes his comeback on delivering them. If he and Kalonzo succeed, Kenyas political map could be redrawn. If they fail, Ukambani will become Rutos crowning conquest.
