Kenya is preparing to break ground on what could become one of the biggest industrial projects in its history, with President William Ruto expected to lead the launch of the Sh2.2 trillion East Africa Refinery in Lamu on September 30.
A State House media invitation for the groundbreaking has now formally put the project on the national calendar, signalling that the long-discussed refinery is moving from investment plans to physical construction.
The ceremony is expected to bring together regional heads of state and government, senior officials and business leaders for a project designed to process 700,000 barrels of crude oil a day.
Backed by Nigerian industrialist Aliko Dangote and the Africa Finance Corporation, the refinery is projected to cost about $17 billion, or Sh2.2 trillion at roughly Sh130 to the dollar. The government expects the wider development to generate more than 60,000 jobs, although these are projected direct and indirect opportunities rather than 60,000 permanent refinery positions.
The planned complex is expected to take about three years to build, putting completion around 2029-30 if the construction schedule holds. An Indian state-owned engineering company, Engineers India Limited, has already secured a contract worth more than $450 million, about Sh58 billion, for project management and engineering, procurement and construction management services.
Why Lamu matters
The location is central to Dangote’s calculation.
Lamu offers direct access to the Indian Ocean and the emerging Lamu Port-South Sudan-Ethiopia Transport corridor, allowing crude to be imported by sea and refined products distributed into Kenya and landlocked markets beyond it.
The refinery is therefore being designed less as a Kenyan facility than as an East African energy platform.
Uganda, Rwanda, South Sudan and the Democratic Republic of Congo are among the markets that could potentially be supplied from Lamu.
For Kenya, the prize is particularly significant. The country spent about Sh511.5 billion on petroleum-product imports in 2025, making fuel one of its largest import bills. A refinery of this scale could retain more value within the domestic economy while reducing reliance on imported refined products.
A very different Changamwe
The project also carries historical resonance.
Kenya’s old refinery at Changamwe, Mombasa, was shut down in 2013 after decades of operation. Its capacity was tiny by modern standards compared with the proposed Lamu plant.
The closure removed a major industrial activity from Changamwe and affected workers and businesses dependent on the refinery ecosystem.
Lamu represents the opposite proposition: a refinery surrounded by logistics, storage, petrochemicals, manufacturing and port activity.
That could make the project an economic anchor for northern Kenya and the wider Coast, provided the promised investment translates into local contracts, skills and permanent businesses.
Dangote’s big East African bet
Dangote’s decision to build in Kenya reflects the size of the regional market and Lamu’s maritime position.
But the commercial challenge is substantial.
Kenya’s own crude production is nowhere near enough to supply a 700,000-barrel-a-day refinery. The plant will therefore require crude from other producers or international markets, making long-term supply agreements and transport infrastructure critical to its economics.
Financing is another test. Ruto’s recent meeting with Dangote and AFC chief executive Samaila Zubairu in New York focused specifically on financing and final preparations for the project.
The September 30 groundbreaking will consequently be more than a ceremonial event.
It will be the point at which Dangote’s Kenyan wager begins to be measured not by announcements, but by construction, capital committed, jobs created and eventually, barrels refined.
