Kenya is set to experience what forecasters are describing as the heaviest rainfall of the season on Thursday, March 5, with intense downpours expected to begin as early as 3:00 a.m. and persist throughout the day into early Friday morning.
The heavy rains are projected to affect virtually every corner of the country — from Mandera to Turkana, Lamu to Lunga Lunga, Liboi to Migori — raising concerns over flooding, landslides and agricultural losses.
Nationwide downpour expected
Weather observers indicate that the rainfall system will be widespread and intense, cutting across arid, coastal, highland and Rift Valley regions.
Some areas in Migori, Narok, Bomet, Nakuru and Kericho are likely to receive up to 200 millimetres of rain within a single day, an unusually high volume capable of triggering flash floods and surface runoff.
Residents in low-lying areas and flood-prone zones have been advised to remain alert as rivers, seasonal streams and drainage systems may quickly overflow.
The intensity of the rains has been likened to “El Niño on steroids,” underscoring the potential severity of the weather event.
Flooding and Landslide Risks in Rift Valley
Particular concern is being raised for parts of the Rift Valley, where saturated soils and elevated lake levels could worsen flooding.
Landslides and mudslides are likely in hilly and escarpment areas, especially in counties with steep terrain. Overflowing lakes in the Rift Valley basin may also pose risks to nearby settlements and infrastructure.
Water infrastructure is expected to come under pressure. Masinga Dam, one of the country’s key reservoirs, is projected to fill rapidly and could begin spilling over earlier than usual — even before the traditional onset of the long rains around March 15.
Rivers to Burst Banks
Rivers that had recently reduced to low levels are expected to swell significantly.
Waterways such as Nyamindi, Thiba and Rupingazi, which were described as nearly dry just weeks ago, are forecast to flood, potentially destroying riverine farms and sweeping away crops.
Farmers along riverbanks are being urged to take precautionary measures where possible, including moving equipment and livestock to higher ground.
Farmers Face Double Blow
The anticipated rains come at a particularly difficult time for farmers.
Tomato growers, still recovering from a recent market glut that depressed prices, now face the threat of root rot and crop destruction due to excessive moisture. French bean farmers may also suffer losses as waterlogged soils damage crops ready for harvest.
Exporters are additionally grappling with logistical challenges linked to ongoing instability in parts of the Middle East, which has affected freight routes and availability. The combination of extreme weather and global geopolitical pressures is creating mounting uncertainty in the agricultural sector.
Industry observers note that farmers are facing pressure on multiple fronts, with climate variability and international disruptions compounding existing economic strains.
Call for Preparedness
Authorities and disaster response agencies are urging Kenyans to prepare for possible flooding and transport disruptions. Motorists are advised to avoid driving through flooded roads, while residents in landslide-prone areas should remain vigilant.
Communities living near rivers and dams have been encouraged to monitor official updates and heed safety advisories issued by local authorities.
As the country braces for Thursday’s downpour, the message from weather observers is clear: prepare for extraordinary rainfall conditions that could test infrastructure, farms and communities across Kenya.
