If Rigathi Gachagua had won the Mbeere North by-election, Kenya would be dealing with a very loud and very arrogant man. The victory would have given him a political comeback he has been dreaming about and bragging rights.And knowing Gachagua’s personality, the behaviour that would follow is almost predictable.
First, he would quickly declare himself the undisputed Mt.Kenya kipin with bravado and fanfare. Gachagua has always operated with the energy of a man who feels wronged and misunderstood. A win in Mbeere North would make him feel fully vindicated. He would tell his supporters that “the people have spoken” and “God has opened the way again.” Anyone who follows his style knows he uses emotional language and incitement to build momentum.
Second, he would immediately turn the victory into a Mt. Kenya message. Gachagua has been pushing the idea that he is the only leader who understands the region’s struggles. So after winning, he would tour Embu, Tharaka-Nithi, Meru and the Central Kenya belt with thanksgiving rallies, positioning himself as the defender of Mt. Kenya businesses, land, and political rights. He would claim the win proves the “Mountain still believes in him.”
Political observer Herman Manyora, who has been one of the most consistent voices analysing Mt. Kenya behaviour, would likely say the win shows that Gachagua’s narrative of protection and betrayal still has supporters. Manyora has always argued that politics in the region moves with emotion and economic pressure, not party loyalty. So a Gachagua win would be read as a protest against the status quo, not a coronation.
Influential political voices like Prof. Gitile Naituli would explain it even more simply: that the people of Mbeere North have used the by-election to “send a message up the hill.” Naituli often emphasises that rural voters speak using ballots when they feel ignored. A Gachagua victory would therefore be a warning to State House that their Mt. Kenya strategy is not landing well.
Younger analysts like Mark Bichachi would likely say Gachagua would over-celebrate, but that the mood reflects genuine frustration with the economy. Bichachi has consistently argued that the country is in a place where any bold, loud leader can ride public anger and turn it into political capital.
If we focus strictly on Gachagua’s behaviour, the script is clear. He would appear on every TV station. He would hold roadside pressers. He would tell the country that he is the King of the Mountain. And he would openly declare that he is the chosen and bully other opposition leaders to tow his line of thought Or else…
Ordinary Kenyans would react in the usual mixed way. Some would celebrate him as “a man who doesn’t fear anyone.” Others would dismiss him as “a troublemaker who likes drama.” But the general public conversation would agree on one thing: a win would make him louder, bolder and more aggressive.
In simple terms, the victory would make Gachagua feel unstoppable. He would behave with bravado and and chest thump for weeks.
