The government has placed 18 counties on a high-risk list as Kenya prepares for the possible impacts of a strengthening El Niño weather event expected to influence conditions from October.
Interior Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen said the government has mapped areas that could face flooding, landslides, drought, disease outbreaks, displacement and damage to infrastructure as part of a wider national preparedness plan.
The warning comes as international weather agencies monitor a rapidly strengthening El Niño, with forecasts pointing to a potentially strong event later this year. The World Food Programme has also warned that a very strong El Niño could worsen food insecurity globally, making early preparedness critical for vulnerable communities.
Murkomen said there is an 81 per cent chance of a strong El Niño and a 97 per cent probability that its effects could continue into early 2027.
The government’s risk assessment, prepared through the National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC), has identified areas across the Coast, Lake Basin, Rift Valley and North Eastern regions for heightened monitoring.
Which counties are considered most vulnerable?
The 18 counties have been identified based on the different risks they could face depending on their location and existing vulnerabilities.
In the Coast region, Tana River, Kilifi, Lamu, Mombasa and Kwale are considered vulnerable to flooding, storm surges, coastal erosion and damage to infrastructure.
The Lake Basin counties of Kisumu, Busia, Siaya, Homa Bay and Migori could experience flooding, landslides, disease outbreaks and displacement.
The government has also classified Nairobi, Mombasa and Kisumu as high-risk urban centres because heavy rainfall could overwhelm drainage systems, disrupt transport and place pressure on essential services.
In the Rift Valley, Turkana, Baringo, West Pokot and Narok face a combination of possible drought, flash floods, landslides, livestock losses and food insecurity.
Garissa, Wajir and Mandera in North Eastern Kenya are considered vulnerable to drought, water shortages, livestock losses, deteriorating pasture and food insecurity.
Why the warning matters
The risk assessment reflects the fact that El Niño does not produce the same effects in every part of the country.
While some areas could receive excessive rainfall and experience flooding, others, particularly pastoral areas, could face water shortages and pressure on livestock and pasture.
Regional forecasts also point to an increased likelihood of above-average rainfall in parts of East Africa during the October-December period, raising concerns about floods, displacement, crop damage and waterborne and vector-borne diseases. Kenya’s southern, coastal, northern and eastern areas are among those requiring close monitoring.
The government has therefore prioritised counties according to the risks identified in the national assessment.
Murkomen said the list could also be expanded if further assessments identify additional areas that may be exposed to El Niño-related hazards.
Government teams placed on alert
National Emergency Multi-Agency and County Emergency Response teams have been placed on high alert as preparations intensify.
The teams are being sensitised on their responsibilities and are expected to coordinate response efforts should severe weather conditions begin to affect communities.
The government’s approach is focused on acting before disasters occur rather than waiting for emergencies to escalate.
This includes identifying vulnerable areas, strengthening response structures and ensuring national and county teams understand the risks facing their respective regions.
The preparations are particularly important because Kenya has previously experienced severe flooding during strong El Niño events.
The 2023-24 El Niño, for example, was associated with heavy rainfall and flooding across parts of the Greater Horn of Africa, including areas of Kenya, Somalia and Ethiopia.
What Kenyans should expect
The government has urged residents in high-risk areas to remain alert to weather updates and follow instructions issued by national and county authorities.
For communities in flood-prone areas, the main concerns include flash floods, damaged roads, displacement and waterborne diseases.
In pastoral and drought-prone counties, the risks include inadequate water, pasture shortages, livestock losses and food insecurity.
The situation is expected to evolve as new weather forecasts become available.
For now, the government says the identification of the 18 counties is intended to ensure that resources and emergency teams are positioned in areas most likely to require assistance as Kenya enters the El Niño period.
The warning also highlights the importance of county-level preparedness, particularly in communities where poor drainage, fragile infrastructure, limited water supplies or dependence on livestock and rain-fed agriculture could worsen the effects of extreme weather.
