The Kenya Meteorological Department has released its monthly forecast for May 2026, warning that several parts of the country will experience heavy rainfall, particularly in the first half of the month.
According to the outlook, rainfall is expected to be near-average to above-average in some regions, with enhanced showers linked to the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), a global weather pattern known to influence rainfall.
Meteorologists say the most intense rains are likely during the first and second weeks of May, before conditions begin to ease in the latter half of the month.
Rift Valley, Lake Basin and western Kenya on high alert
Regions expected to receive significant rainfall include the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin and parts of the Rift Valley.
Counties such as Kakamega County, Kisumu County, Nakuru County, Uasin Gishu County and Narok County are expected to experience near-average rainfall, with heavy downpours likely in several areas.
Experts warn that these regions could face localized flooding, especially in low-lying and poorly drained areas.
Northeastern and northwestern regions to see mixed patterns
In Northeastern Kenya, rainfall is expected to vary, with counties like Mandera County and parts of Wajir County and Marsabit County likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall.
Meanwhile, northwestern counties such as Turkana County and Samburu County are expected to experience near-average rainfall, with occasional heavy storms during the early weeks.
Central highlands and Nairobi to receive steady showers
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi County, Kiambu County, Murang’a County and Nyeri County, are expected to record near-average rainfall.
Heavy showers are also likely in parts of Meru County, Embu County and Tharaka Nithi County, particularly in the first half of May.
However, eastern sections of these counties may experience slightly reduced rainfall.
Coast and southeastern regions to experience variable rainfall
At the Coast, counties including Mombasa County, Kilifi County, Kwale County and Lamu County are expected to receive near-average rainfall, with heavy showers likely early in the month.
In the southeastern lowlands, including Machakos County, Kitui County, Makueni County, Kajiado County and Taita Taveta County, rainfall is expected to range from above-average to below-average depending on location.
What this means for Kenyans
The forecast comes amid ongoing concerns over flooding in parts of the country, with authorities urging residents to remain cautious, especially during the early weeks of May.
Heavy rainfall could disrupt transport, agriculture, and daily activities, particularly in flood-prone areas. However, the rains are also expected to support farming activities and water availability in many regions.
