The Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) has released its March–April–May (MAM) 2026 Long Rains Seasonal Climate Outlook, warning that several regions are likely to experience near-average to above-average rainfall, with risks of flooding and landslides in some areas.
The forecast was unveiled on Wednesday, February 4, following a national co-production process under the 12th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF-12) held in Nairobi.
According to KMD, rainfall distribution across the country will vary significantly, with some regions receiving enhanced rainfall while others experience below-average totals.
Regions expected to receive heavy rainfall
The department projects that counties in the Lake Victoria Basin, the Highlands west and east of the Rift Valley — including Nairobi — the Rift Valley, and parts of north-western Kenya are likely to receive near-average to above-average rainfall during the season.
“Some areas may experience isolated heavy rainfall events, raising the risk of localised flooding and landslides,” Kenya Met said in its outlook.
The forecast notes that rainfall onset, intensity and distribution may vary across regions, with intermittent dry spells expected in some locations.
Drier conditions at the coast and arid regions
Counties in the southeastern lowlands and northeastern Kenya are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall, while parts of north-western Kenya may experience poorly distributed rains that could affect agriculture, pasture, and water availability.
Kenya Met further warned that the Coastal region — including Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, Lamu and the coastal parts of Tana River County — is projected to receive below-average rainfall.
“Despite generally lower rainfall totals, isolated heavy rainfall events may still occur, especially later in the season. Peak rainfall at the Coast is expected in May, later than most other regions,” the department noted.
April to record peak rains
Speaking during the briefing, Acting Director of Meteorological Services Edward M. Muriuki said most regions are expected to record their heaviest rainfall in April.
“The season is projected to have a generally poor to fair temporal and spatial distribution of rainfall across several areas, with intermittent dry spells, though isolated heavy rainfall events may occur,” Muriuki said.
Heat risks also expected
Kenya Met also cautioned that warmer-than-average temperatures are likely across the entire country during the forecast period. The higher temperatures could increase heat-related risks, particularly in arid and semi-arid lands (ASALs), coastal areas and major urban centres.
The department advised residents, county governments and disaster management agencies to remain alert and take precautionary measures in flood-prone and landslide-prone areas as the long rains season approaches.
