As the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) marked its 20th anniversary on the shores of Mama Ngina Waterfront in Mombasa, what should have been a moment of celebration instead laid bare fault lines threatening the party’s post-Raila identity.
The speeches of key figures such as Babu Owino, Winnie Odinga, James Orengo, and Hassan Joho all underscored a party at cross-purposes.
At the heart of the tension was a profound debate over ODM’s raison d’être.
Siaya Governor James Orengo delivered one of the most pointed messages of the day, warning against reducing ODM to a servant of the broad-based government. “Ruto needs ODM; it’s not ODM that needs Ruto,” he insisted, attacking what he sees as a creeping dependency that could dilute the party’s mission.
Standing beside him, Winnie Odinga, daughter of the late Raila Odinga, accused unnamed “powerful figures” within ODM of quietly plotting to “sell our party” in secret meetings. Her imagery was dark: “Walking with us in the day, planning at night,” she said, urging the faithful to guard the values of struggle, sacrifice, and resistance that birthed the Orange Movement.
Then there was Babu Owino, whose very absence on day one resonated as loudly as any speech. The Embakasi East MP, though invited, stayed in Nairobi, citing a graduation ceremony, but his silence struck many as a calculated act. In recent weeks, he has even warned that “Ruto is on the verge of finishing ODM” from within, accusing the president of masquerading unity while undermining the party’s independence.
When he arrived on day two, he shot straight towards the current leadership suggesting his exclusion.
I have lots of respect for you the party leader but looking into the future who said I can’t lead the party, he shot.
On the other side of the chasm has stood Oburu Oginga, acting ODM leader, offering conciliatory words. He met with Babu, saying: “Hon. Babu Owino symbolises the vibrant energy … we are together, strong.” He went further to assure others fearful of sidelining, “There’s absolutely no reason he wouldn’t get the ticket, if he wins the nominations.”
But while Oburu paints a picture of unity, Hassan Joho, the Cabinet Secretary and former Coast governor, issued a more cautious tone: only the party’s formal organs should speak for ODM. Anything else, he said, risks sowing confusion. In his own remarks before the anniversary, Joho defended their place in government, saying participation is not surrender — but critics rightfully see that as part of the fracturing.
Political analysts have not held back. In a sharp commentary titled “Oburu’s burden: ODM faces its toughest test post-Raila”, The Star’s Eliud Kibii argues that the party must reinvent itself “as a collective movement or face gradual decline” without the gravitational personality of Raila. Indeed, ODM’s broad base must now contend with the twin demands of moving close enough to power to stay relevant — yet far enough to preserve its identity.
Another analyst, Daniel Orogo, told The Star that ODM’s contradictory positioning — condemning the government one moment, embracing it the next — may not be confusion so much as deliberate strategy. As he put it: “This is a strategy … it’s deliberate … the party is betting on ambiguity as its survival tool.”
Blogs and social-media voices have amplified the dismay. One user on Reddit captured the mood:
“These people have absolutely no plans for Kenya … No, their redline is fire si fire’s seat … We need to drain the swamp.”
Another ridiculed what they saw as transactional politics:
“ODM is the Odinga Family Trust. A cash cow for the family.”
Such commentary reveals a deep cynicism: that the ideals of the Orange Movement — once anchored in resistance, selflessness, and reform — are at risk of being commodified.
Taken together, the Mombasa celebrations may have been glittering — but they also amplified a disquieting truth. ODM’s post-Raila moment is not just about succession: it’s a reckoning over purpose. Do they remain a voice of opposition or a kingmaker in government? Do they preserve their founding ethos of liberation, or fully embrace the machinery of power?
The speeches by Orengo and Winnie Odinga pointed to a nostalgic insistence on protest; Oburu and Joho’s tones suggested pragmatism and power-sharing.
And the analysts — both in mainstream media and social forums — see it as a make-or-break moment. If ODM fails to align its internal factions, build coherent national purpose, and integrate its voices both young and old, it may not survive the very celebrations meant to cement its legacy.
In this sense, ODM@20 is not just an anniversary — it is a moment of truth.
