Mbeere North’s by-election has been framed as a heavyweight contest between the Government and the emerging United Opposition. But beneath the noise of motorcades, rallies and national endorsements lies a quieter, decisive truth: Evurore Ward alone can swing this race.
Using the latest publicly available IEBC 2022 ward register, the numbers are unmistakable. Evurore holds 26,393 registered voters — far more than Nthawa (18,882) and Muminji (9,849). Any candidate who dominates Evurore with high turnout becomes the automatic frontrunner, regardless of party machinery.
That’s why the presence of Duncan Mbui, an independent with deep Evurore roots, complicates the duel between UDA’s Leonard Muriuki (backed by DP Kithure Kindiki) and the United Opposition’s Newton Karish (aligned with Rigathi Gachagua). This race is not a simple two-horse contest. It is a test of whose voters show up — and where.
Three plausible scenarios illustrate the stakes.
Scenario One: The Survey Snapshot.Local polls in October and November showed Karish in the 40% range, Leonard in the low 30s and Mbui in the mid-teens. If turnout is even across wards, Karish wins cleanly. It’s the “predictable” outcome.
Scenario Two: The Government Surge.If UDA’s mobilisation machine kicks in — with Kindiki leading the charge — Leonard can flip the race. Under a modest turnout bump, he opens a comfortable lead. This is the outcome the Government is banking on to protect its turf.
Scenario Three: The Evurore Wave.If Evurore turns out heavily and follows Mbui, he wins outright. A 75% turnout with Mbui taking the lion’s share of the ward’s vote mathematically outpaces both national-backed candidates, even if he remains weak in the smaller wards.
These scenarios point to a simple but powerful conclusion: the winner will be decided by turnout asymmetry, not national narratives. UDA has the machinery, the Opposition has momentum, but Mbui has the demographic leverage of the largest ward.
In a season where alignments ahead of 2027 are shifting, Mbeere North offers an early lesson: sometimes the road to national bragging rights begins with a single ward — and in this race, that ward is Evurore.
