The United Opposition is facing a crucial decision ahead of the 2027 General Election: not only who should lead its presidential ticket, but also how that candidate should be chosen.
Two competing approaches have emerged. One side is pushing for scientific polling that would allow Kenyans to determine the most popular candidate, while another favours negotiations among opposition principals behind closed doors.
The disagreement could become as important as the eventual choice of candidate because the opposition must first agree on the rules before it can settle on its flag bearer.
Push for a people-driven process
Former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, PLP leader Martha Karua, former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i, Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro and Saboti MP Caleb Amisi are among leaders associated with the scientific polling proposal.
Karua has argued for a people-centred process in which ordinary Kenyans have a direct role in choosing the candidate.
The argument is that a candidate selected through a credible public process would enter the 2027 race with a clearer indication of their national support and a stronger popular mandate.
Nyoro has also rejected the idea of leaving the decision entirely to political leaders.
He has argued that principals sitting around a table could choose a candidate based on their own political interests rather than the person with the strongest support among voters.
In his view, leaders could also favour a candidate they believe would be easier to influence once in office.
Amisi invokes the 2007 experience
Amisi has proposed a more elaborate people-driven nomination process, drawing comparisons with the 2007 opposition politics that preceded the formation of the Orange Democratic Movement ticket.
He has suggested bringing delegates from across the country together at the Raila Odinga Stadium in Talanta City to select the opposition flag bearer.
The proposal is intended to give supporters of the various political formations an opportunity to participate directly rather than leaving the decision to a small group of party leaders.
Kalonzo leans towards negotiations
The scientific polling proposal, however, has not won universal support.
Wiper leader and United Opposition convener Kalonzo Musyoka has appeared more inclined towards negotiations among the political principals.
Under the boardroom approach, the leaders would assess their respective political strengths and agree on a candidate considered capable of mounting the strongest challenge to President William Ruto.
The approach could also allow the principals to negotiate other positions, including the running mate slot and senior roles within a future administration.
However, the disagreement has already generated political suspicion, with some of Kalonzo’s allies questioning the motives of leaders advocating for scientific polling.
The bigger test for the opposition
Under the polling model, the candidate who emerges with the strongest support would become the presidential flag bearer, while other leading contenders could receive senior positions under an agreed coalition formula.
The boardroom model would instead rely on negotiations and compromise among the principals.
The United Opposition has continued with retreats and consultations as leaders attempt to agree on both the selection mechanism and the timing of announcing their candidate.
The debate is also likely to feature in anticipated talks between the United Opposition and Linda Mwananchi, as the two formations consider whether they can eventually unite behind one candidate.
With 2027 approaching, the opposition’s first major contest may therefore be fought within its own ranks — over whether its presidential candidate should be chosen by voters, political leaders or a compromise between the two.
