The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has issued a fresh climate alert warning that El Niño conditions are increasingly likely to emerge in the coming months, potentially triggering a wave of extreme weather events across different regions of the world.
In its latest climate outlook, the United Nations weather agency said there is an 80 per cent probability that El Niño will develop between June and August 2026, with the likelihood rising to more than 90 per cent towards the end of the year.
The forecast has prompted calls for governments, humanitarian agencies and climate-sensitive sectors to strengthen preparedness measures as the phenomenon could intensify existing climate-related challenges.
What El Niño Means for Global Weather
El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific Ocean become significantly warmer than normal, disrupting atmospheric circulation and altering weather patterns worldwide.
The climate event is often associated with higher global temperatures, heavier rainfall and flooding in some regions, and prolonged droughts and heatwaves in others.
Scientists say warming ocean temperatures in the Pacific are already approaching thresholds associated with El Niño development. Recent observations have also revealed unusually warm subsurface waters, creating conditions that could sustain further warming over the coming months.
According to the WMO, atmospheric indicators linked to El Niño are also beginning to align with patterns typically observed during the onset of the phenomenon.
Potential Impact on Kenya and the Horn of Africa
For Kenya and much of the Horn of Africa, El Niño is generally associated with above-average rainfall, particularly during the short rains season, increasing the likelihood of flooding, infrastructure damage and displacement of communities in vulnerable areas.
The forecast comes as countries across Eastern Africa continue to strengthen climate resilience following recent years of alternating droughts and floods that have affected agriculture, water resources and livelihoods.
Experts warn that while increased rainfall may benefit some farming activities, excessive precipitation can also lead to crop losses, disease outbreaks and destruction of critical infrastructure.
UN Calls for Immediate Climate Preparedness
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged governments around the world to treat the warning with urgency, noting that El Niño could amplify the effects of climate change already being experienced globally.
He warned that the climate phenomenon would add pressure to a world already facing rising temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme weather events.
Guterres called for accelerated investments in renewable energy, stronger protection for vulnerable communities and expanded early warning systems to reduce the impact of future climate shocks.
WMO Urges Governments to Act Early
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said authorities should begin preparations immediately to minimise the potential effects of a moderate to strong El Niño event.
She noted that the 2023–2024 El Niño episode ranked among the strongest ever recorded and contributed significantly to record global temperatures witnessed in 2024.
According to Saulo, sectors such as agriculture, water management, health and energy should closely monitor developments and integrate climate forecasts into planning and decision-making processes.
Early Warning Systems Key to Reducing Losses
The WMO emphasized that seasonal climate forecasts and early warning systems remain critical tools in helping countries protect lives, livelihoods and economic activities.
Globally, El Niño is expected to bring wetter conditions to parts of the Horn of Africa, southern South America and portions of North America, while increasing the risk of drought in regions including Australia, Indonesia, parts of southern Asia and sections of Central and South America.
With forecasts increasingly pointing to a strengthening event, climate experts say governments have a limited window to prepare and reduce the potential social and economic impacts of extreme weather in the months ahead.
