Kenya is heading into an unusually wet October–December season. Yet an El Niño forecast does not mean every county will receive the same amount of rain, at the same time, or face the same danger.
That distinction matters for a farmer deciding when to plant, a pastoralist waiting for pasture to recover, and a family living beside a river.
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority expects above-average rainfall across most of the country during the 2026 short rains. Turkana and parts of West Pokot, Samburu and Marsabit have a different outlook: rainfall there is expected to range from near average to above average, with less reliable distribution in some areas.
So how can one climate event produce different outcomes?
El Niño changes the odds, not the weather in every village
El Niño begins in the tropical Pacific Ocean, where unusually warm surface waters alter the circulation of air and moisture. Those changes can influence rainfall thousands of kilometres away, including during East Africa’s October–December short rains.
But El Niño is only one influence on Kenya’s weather. The Indian Ocean Dipole, the movement of rain-bearing systems, local geography and shorter weather patterns also matter. The World Meteorological Organization says an El Niño’s effects vary with its strength, timing and interaction with other climate patterns.
For 2026, forecasters expect El Niño to coincide with a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, a pattern that can further favour rainfall in East Africa. The regional climate centre ICPAC says the two conditions are contributing to the wetter short-rains outlook.
“Above average” means different amounts in different places
A seasonal forecast compares an area’s expected rainfall with that area’s own historical average. Above-average rainfall in a normally dry county does not necessarily mean it will receive more rain than a normally wet county.
The timing also differs. Kenya’s weather authority says some areas may begin receiving seasonal rains in September, while onset in most regions is expected between the second and fourth weeks of October. A county could therefore have a wet season overall and still experience a dry start or gaps between rainy spells.
This is especially consequential in Kenya’s arid and semi-arid areas. The short rains account for more than 40 per cent of annual rainfall in several counties, making the timing and spread of rain as important as the seasonal total.
A wet forecast is not a flood forecast for every home
Rainfall and flood risk are related, but they are not identical. A short, intense downpour can overwhelm drainage or cause a river to rise even if the surrounding season has been less remarkable. Conversely, sustained rain spread over many weeks may replenish water supplies without producing the same immediate damage.
ICPAC identifies a 90 per cent chance of enhanced seasonal rainfall in northeastern Kenya and adjoining areas of the region. That is a probability about rainfall over the season, not a prediction that every location there will flood. The centre also advises people to follow national, county, monthly and weekly updates as the season progresses.
Kenya’s outlook points to both opportunities and hazards: improved pasture, water availability and crop prospects on one hand; flash floods, waterlogging, landslides and damaged roads where heavy rain falls on vulnerable places on the other. KENYA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
What should Kenyans watch next?
The seasonal outlook is useful for preparing early. It cannot tell a household which day a nearby river will overflow or a farmer the precise day to sow.
The practical step is to use it alongside county forecasts and shorter-range warnings, particularly as the rains begin. A farmer needs to watch the onset and likely dry spells. Someone in a flood-prone area needs to pay attention to heavy-rain advisories even if their county’s seasonal total is forecast merely as “near average”.
