Kenya’s annual inflation stood at 6.5 per cent in July, but the headline figure does not tell the whole story.
A closer look at the latest data from the Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) shows that two parts of the household budget — food and transport — accounted for 4.1 percentage points of the overall inflation rate.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed 2.6 percentage points, while transport contributed another 1.5 points. Together, the two categories account for about 63 per cent of the 6.5-point headline inflation rate.
That is perhaps the clearest way of understanding where the pressure in the cost of living is coming from.
It also shows why the headline inflation figure should not be read as though every good and service in the economy has become 6.5 per cent more expensive.
Food remains one of the biggest sources of pressure
Food and non-alcoholic beverages recorded annual inflation of 9.0 per cent in July, well above the 6.5 per cent headline rate.
The category also carries the largest weight in the consumer price basket, accounting for about 32.9 per cent of the total CPI basket. Transport accounts for about 9.6 per cent.
The figures become more revealing when individual food items are examined.
Some of the foods that households buy regularly have actually fallen in price over the past year.
The average national price of a 2kg packet of sifted maize flour fell from KSh159.40 in July 2025 to KSh157.15 in July 2026, a decline of 1.4 per cent. Fortified maize flour fell 1.8 per cent, while beans declined 1.9 per cent.
Sugar recorded an even larger fall. Its average price dropped from KSh186.78 per kilogramme in July last year to KSh167.41 in July this year — a 10.4 per cent reduction.
But that relief has not been uniform across the food basket.
Tomatoes were 33.7 per cent more expensive than a year earlier. Potatoes rose 28.4 per cent, while sukuma wiki increased 26.8 per cent. Beef with bones was up 10.7 per cent and onions rose 11.2 per cent.
This is an important distinction.
A household may be paying less for some staples while spending considerably more on vegetables, meat and other fresh foods. The result is that the experience of inflation can vary significantly from one household to another depending on what it buys most often.
Transport is the other major pressure point
Transport recorded annual inflation of 15.6 per cent in July — more than twice the headline inflation rate.
KNBS data shows diesel prices were 29.7 per cent higher than a year earlier, while petrol prices were up 14.7 per cent.
The report also tracks a specific city bus/matatu fare between Koja and Westlands. The listed average fare rose from KSh60 in July 2025 to KSh100 in July 2026, although the report records the annual percentage change for that sampled route at 16.8 per cent.
The important point is not that every Kenyan commuter is paying KSh100 for a matatu ride. The KNBS figure is based on the particular route it samples.
Rather, the data illustrates the broader pressure within the transport category, which contributed 1.5 percentage points to the overall inflation rate.
That pressure matters beyond the cost of getting to work.
Higher transport costs can feed into the price of goods because businesses have to move food, farm produce, manufactured products and other supplies from one location to another.
Not everything is rising at the same pace
The July figures also provide a useful counterpoint to the 6.5 per cent headline number.
Information and communication recorded annual inflation of just 0.6 per cent. Insurance and financial services rose by 0.8 per cent, while clothing and footwear increased by 2.2 per cent.
Health recorded inflation of 2.8 per cent, education services 3.1 per cent and housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels 3.2 per cent.
Education and information and communication also recorded no monthly increase between June and July.
This matters because a 6.5 per cent national inflation rate is an average across a large basket of goods and services. Some parts of that basket are moving much faster, while others remain comparatively stable.
The deeper story is in core and non-core inflation
There is another number in the KNBS report that deserves more attention: core inflation.
Core inflation, which covers less volatile items including manufactured food, health, education and ICT, stood at 3.2 per cent in July.
Non-core inflation, which captures more volatile items, was much higher at 15.0 per cent.
The difference has become particularly pronounced in recent months.
Core inflation stood at 2.0 per cent in December 2025 before rising to 3.2 per cent in May, falling slightly to 3.1 per cent in June and returning to 3.2 per cent in July.
Over the same period, non-core inflation moved from 11.2 per cent in December to 16.0 per cent in May, before easing to 15.1 per cent in June and 15.0 per cent in July.
That tells us something important about the current inflation picture.
The headline rate is being heavily influenced by categories that are more volatile, particularly food and transport.
Indeed, KNBS calculates that core inflation contributed 3.8 percentage points to July’s overall inflation, while non-core inflation contributed 2.7 points.
What the July numbers really say
The 6.5 per cent figure is therefore only the starting point.
The more useful question is: what is driving it?
The answer from the KNBS data is relatively clear.
Food and transport are doing most of the heavy lifting. Together, they contributed 4.1 percentage points to the overall rate.
But even within those categories, the picture is mixed.
Sugar, maize flour and beans were cheaper than a year earlier. At the same time, tomatoes, potatoes, sukuma wiki and transport-related costs were significantly higher.
And outside those pressure points, several areas of household spending recorded much more moderate annual price increases.
