Kenya is preparing for a potentially difficult October to December rainfall season, with authorities warning that heavy rains could trigger flooding, landslides and widespread disruption in several parts of the country.
The National Disaster Operations Centre (NDOC) estimates that about 1.5 million people could be affected, while as many as 500,000 people could be displaced in a worst-case scenario.
The warning was issued as government agencies, climate experts, humanitarian organisations and other stakeholders met in Nairobi for the 13th National Climate Outlook Forum (NCOF13).
Here is what Kenyans need to know about the expected rains and the preparations underway.
Why is Kenya expecting heavy rains?
The Kenya Meteorological Service Authority (KMSA) says current weather models indicate an over 80 per cent probability of heavy rainfall during the October-November-December (OND) season.
Climate experts are also monitoring evolving El Niño conditions in the region.
The Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum has projected a 99 per cent probability of El Niño occurring, with more than a 90 per cent likelihood that the phenomenon could be very strong.
However, KMSA Acting Director Edward Muriuki cautioned that El Niño is not the only factor determining how much rain different parts of Kenya will receive.
The meteorological authority is therefore continuing to monitor several weather and climate factors before issuing more detailed forecasts.
Which areas are most at risk?
Authorities have identified several counties and regions requiring closer monitoring because of their exposure to floods, landslides and other hazards.
They include:
- Mandera
- Wajir
- Garissa
- Tana River
- Parts of the Coast
- Elgeyo-Marakwet
- Baringo
- Murang’a
- Kiambu
- Kisumu
- Busia
The risks will not be the same everywhere.
Murang’a, Kiambu and Elgeyo-Marakwet have been identified as particularly vulnerable to landslides, while several counties in northern and eastern Kenya face heightened flood risks.
What could happen if the rains become severe?
The government is preparing for several possible emergencies.
These include flooding, landslides, drowning incidents, collapsed buildings, damaged bridges and possible dam failures.
Heavy rainfall could also affect roads and other transport infrastructure, while communities could experience interruptions to electricity, water supplies and communication networks.
Some areas could become inaccessible if roads and bridges are damaged or submerged.
NDOC Director Col. (Rtd) David Samoei said authorities were therefore planning for the worst-case scenario rather than waiting for disasters to occur.
How is the government preparing?
NDOC has activated a multi-agency preparedness plan and is working with county officials in areas considered vulnerable.
One of the priorities is ensuring that emergency response teams can reach communities even where roads become impassable.
The government is also working with the Kenya Defence Forces to support rescue operations in areas that could become difficult to access.
This could include the deployment of helicopters if necessary.
Authorities are also planning to move food and other essential supplies closer to communities considered vulnerable before the rains begin.
Businesses in affected areas have similarly been encouraged to increase their stocks to reduce the risk of shortages if transport and supply chains are disrupted.
Why is the government identifying evacuation centres?
Previous emergencies have seen schools converted into temporary shelters for displaced families.
Authorities now want to identify alternative evacuation centres before the rainy season begins.
The aim is to prevent schools from being used as emergency shelters where possible, particularly because the OND season coincides with important activities in the education calendar.
Using schools as shelters can disrupt learning and may expose school property to damage.
What should residents do?
Authorities are urging Kenyans to take preventive measures before the rains intensify.
Urban residents, in particular, have been encouraged to keep drainage systems, rivers and waterways free of rubbish.
Blocked drainage can worsen flooding by preventing rainwater from flowing away from homes and roads.
People living in flood-prone areas should also pay attention to official weather and disaster alerts and avoid crossing flooded rivers or roads.
Early preparation is particularly important for communities living near rivers, steep slopes and other areas exposed to flooding or landslides.
Why are climate experts emphasising early action?
Officials say receiving a weather forecast is not enough if communities and institutions do not act on the information.
The Kenya Red Cross Society has called for climate information to be translated into practical guidance for communities, businesses and government agencies.
This could help different sectors prepare for the specific risks they face rather than responding only after disasters occur.
UN officials have similarly called for a shift from emergency response towards anticipating and reducing disaster risks before they materialise.
Forests, watersheds and other ecosystems also play an important role in reducing flooding, erosion and other climate-related risks.
Why is the OND season particularly important?
The October-December period will coincide with several activities that could increase movement and pressure on infrastructure.
Schools will be operating, national examinations will be taking place and Kenyans will be travelling across the country.
The country will also be moving deeper into preparations for the 2027 General Election, potentially increasing movement of people and political activities.
Disruptions to roads, electricity, water or communication networks could therefore have consequences beyond individual communities.
When will the official forecast be released?
The detailed national OND forecast is expected to be released at the conclusion of the National Climate Outlook Forum on Wednesday, August 26, 2026.
The forecast will provide more specific information on expected rainfall and its possible effects across different parts of the country.
Sector-specific advisories are also expected to cover areas including agriculture, food security, livestock, energy, water, health, transport, infrastructure, disaster management, the environment and the wider economy.
For Kenyans, the key message is that preparations should begin before the rains arrive.
The government is planning for a potentially severe season, while meteorological agencies continue to refine their forecasts. Communities can reduce the impact by paying attention to early warnings, keeping drainage channels clear and taking precautions in areas exposed to flooding and landslides.
