A presidential candidate in Kenya must receive more than half of the valid votes cast nationally, and at least 25 per cent of the votes in each of at least 24 counties, to win in the first round. These are separate tests, and a candidate must pass both.
There is no fixed winning total for 2027. The number depends on how many valid presidential votes are cast, rather than how many people are registered.
What does “50 per cent plus one” mean?
Article 138(4) of the Constitution requires a candidate to receive more than half of the votes cast. This is commonly described as the “50 per cent plus one” rule.
The practical calculation is to divide the total valid presidential votes by two, discard any fraction, then add one vote.
| Total valid presidential votes | Minimum national majority |
|---|---|
| 10,000,000 | 5,000,001 |
| 15,000,000 | 7,500,001 |
| 15,000,001 | 7,500,001 |
| 20,000,000 | 10,000,001 |
These are illustrations, not forecasts for 2027. They show why the precise rule is “more than half”: when the total is odd, the smallest majority is the next whole vote above half.
Do rejected ballots count?
Rejected ballots are excluded when calculating the presidential winning threshold. The Supreme Court settled this question in the 2013 presidential election petition and applied a calculation excluding rejected votes in its 2022 decision.
For example, if 15 million presidential ballots are cast but 100,000 are rejected, the valid total is 14.9 million. The minimum national majority would be 7,450,001 votes.
Registered voters who do not vote do not enter that calculation either.
Must a candidate win 24 counties?
No. The county test requires at least a quarter of the vote in each of at least 24 counties. It does not require finishing first in those counties.
In a hypothetical county with 200,000 valid presidential votes, 50,000 votes would meet the 25 per cent threshold even if another candidate received more.
A candidate can therefore finish second in a county and still count it towards the geographical requirement.
Is having the most votes enough?
A national lead alone does not secure a first-round victory.
Consider a hypothetical election with 15 million valid votes:
| Candidate | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|
| Candidate A | 7,200,000 | 48% |
| Candidate B | 6,300,000 | 42% |
| Candidate C | 1,500,000 | 10% |
Candidate A leads by 900,000 votes but remains below the required national majority of 7,500,001.
Similarly, passing the national majority while reaching the county threshold in only 23 counties would not satisfy both requirements.
What happens if nobody meets the requirements?
Article 138 provides for a fresh election within 30 days if no candidate qualifies. This is commonly called a run-off.
Ordinarily, it involves the two leading candidates, although the Constitution makes specific provision for ties. In that fresh election, the candidate receiving the most votes is declared elected.
What does this mean for 2027?
Any claim that a candidate needs a particular number—such as eight million or ten million votes—to win in 2027 must state its assumptions about turnout and valid votes.
The actual first-round target will be determined by the final valid presidential vote total, alongside the separate county test.
