Kenya could experience the return of El Niño conditions later this year, with the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD) warning that the climate phenomenon may significantly influence weather patterns across the country in the coming months.
In a statement issued on June 9, KMD said global climate models indicate an 80 to 82 percent probability of El Niño developing between June and August 2026, with the likelihood rising to between 90 and 96 percent that the phenomenon will persist through the end of the year.
According to the department, most forecast models suggest the event could reach moderate to strong intensity.
Higher Rainfall Expected Towards End of the Year
While El Niño’s influence during the June-July-August period is typically associated with reduced rainfall in western Kenya, meteorologists say its biggest impact is expected during the October-November-December (OND) rainy season.
KMD noted that El Niño is generally linked to increased rainfall across much of Kenya and the wider East African region during the final quarter of the year.
“The combined effects of El Niño and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could significantly influence rainfall patterns over Kenya, potentially leading to enhanced rainfall during the October-November-December season,” the statement said.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), another major climate driver, is currently neutral but could turn positive later in the year, potentially amplifying El Niño-related rainfall.
What to Expect in the Coming Months
The June-July-August seasonal forecast indicates varied weather conditions across different parts of the country.
Areas including the Highlands West of the Rift Valley, the Lake Victoria Basin, the Rift Valley and parts of northwestern Kenya are expected to receive near-average to below-average rainfall.
Meanwhile, coastal counties are forecast to experience near-average to above-average rainfall.
The Highlands East of the Rift Valley, including Nairobi, along with parts of the southeastern lowlands and some high-altitude areas of Marsabit and Taita Taveta counties, are likely to experience occasional cool, cloudy conditions accompanied by light rainfall.
Most parts of northeastern Kenya and the southeastern lowlands are expected to remain generally sunny and dry.
Meteorologists have also projected warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the country during the period.
Lessons from Previous El Niño Events
The anticipated El Niño comes as memories remain fresh of previous events that brought widespread flooding, displacement of families, destruction of infrastructure and significant agricultural losses in several parts of Kenya.
Climate experts often caution that while El Niño can benefit farming through increased rainfall, it can also trigger floods, landslides and disease outbreaks if preparedness measures are not put in place early.
KMD emphasized that forecasts remain subject to change as new climate data becomes available and urged Kenyans to regularly follow official weather updates and advisories.
Government Monitoring Situation Closely
The Meteorological Department said it is working closely with the National Disaster Operations Centre and other agencies to support preparedness and mitigation efforts ahead of the anticipated weather changes.
“KMD remains committed to providing timely weather and climate information to safeguard lives, livelihoods and property through proactive planning and coordinated response measures,” the agency stated.
The department is expected to release its detailed national October-November-December 2026 seasonal forecast in late August or early September, providing a clearer picture of the anticipated impacts across the country.
