A new opinion survey has given UDA candidate Samuel Muchina Nyaga an early advantage in the race for the forthcoming Ol Kalou Constituency by-election, positioning him as the frontrunner in a contest that is increasingly attracting national political attention.
The survey, conducted by Kenya Track Survey and released on June 4, indicates that Muchina enjoys the support of 48 percent of likely voters, compared to 40 percent for his closest challenger, Sammy Kamau Ngotho of the Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP).
The poll was conducted between May 10 and May 31 through telephone interviews involving 4,354 respondents across the constituency. It carries a margin of error of plus or minus three percent at a 95 percent confidence level.
Muchina Benefits From UDA Backing
According to the survey findings, Muchina’s support is largely driven by his affiliation with the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA), with many respondents believing he is best positioned to attract government-backed development projects to the constituency.
Voters who support the UDA candidate cited road infrastructure, healthcare services, water projects, agricultural support and youth empowerment programmes as key priorities influencing their decision.
The survey also found that many residents view Muchina as a candidate capable of maintaining strong working relationships with both county and national government leaders, which they believe could accelerate development initiatives in the area.
Kamau Ngotho Builds Momentum Among Change Seekers
Despite trailing in the poll, Kamau Ngotho has established a strong support base centred on calls for political change, grassroots representation and people-focused leadership.
Supporters describe the DCP candidate as accessible, energetic and closely connected to ordinary residents. His message has resonated particularly among younger voters and those seeking an alternative political direction in the Mt Kenya region.
Political observers note that Ngotho’s growing popularity could make the race more competitive as campaigns intensify in the coming weeks.
Development Issues Dominate Voter Priorities
Beyond candidate popularity, the survey reveals that voters are increasingly focused on practical issues rather than political rhetoric.
Job creation, agricultural support, road infrastructure, healthcare services and youth empowerment emerged as the leading concerns shaping voter preferences.
The findings suggest residents are looking for leaders capable of delivering tangible development outcomes and effectively representing constituency interests in Parliament.
Undecided Voters Could Still Shape Outcome
The poll found that 8 percent of respondents support other candidates, while 4 percent remain undecided.
Analysts say this group could prove decisive in determining the final outcome, especially if the contest tightens as election campaigns gather momentum.
Both leading candidates are expected to intensify grassroots mobilization efforts in a bid to win over swing voters ahead of polling day.
By-Election Seen as Test Ahead of 2027
The Ol Kalou by-election is being viewed as more than a local political contest. Political analysts see it as an important indicator of voter sentiment, party strength and emerging alliances ahead of the 2027 General Election.
The race is expected to provide valuable insights into the political mood of the Mt Kenya region, one of Kenya’s most influential voting blocs.
While Samuel Muchina currently holds an eight-point advantage, Kamau Ngotho’s growing support and the presence of undecided voters suggest the contest remains far from settled.
